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The prices of the “commodity” polymer grades during the week ahead are affected by the following factors:

-BRENT oil price 51.80 USD/barrel, stagnating prices

-NAPHTHA (European) 461.92 USD/t, further rising prices,

-EUR/USD: 1.2255, strong Euro

Contracted monomer pricesin January:

• Ethylene (C2) contract price +65 EUR/t (860 EUR/t)
• Propylene (C3) contract price +65 EUR/t (800 EUR/t),
• Styrene monomer (SM) contract price +108 EUR/t (1,026 EUR/t)

Polymer capacity news

• Rompetrol LDPE has no planned shutdown until early February
• Lyondell Basell Bere PP shutdown (350 kt/year capacity),
• Basell Orlen is building inventories due to 2 months of spring maintenance, so supply is tight.
• Three-digit polymer price increase
• Very limited supply of all polymers,
• Until Epiphany (January 6) most converters are on leave

Oil and NAPHTHA prices in early January are similar to those of 2 weeks ago. As a result, monomer prices have risen signicantly. The January contract price of both ethylene (C2) and propylene (C3) monomers increased by EUR 65 in January. The price of Styrene monomer (SM) increased by 108 euros compared to December.

The heralded Russian imports of PE and PP were practically sold out in the days before Christmas. We do not expect new shipments in January. More serious lots are likely to arrive from Russia in February.

It can already be seen that the supply of all the polymers we examined will be very tight until at least the end of the rst quarter. However, Western European polymer producers think polymer shortage is likely in the rst half of the year. This also seems very likely in Central Europe, especially with regard to Basell Orlen maintenance, which will be in the second quarter. This will have a major impact on the HDPE supply, but is also likely to have an impact on the PP and LDPE supply.

The tight supply in Europe is likely to sustain the upward price trend, and high prices are quite certain. No correction or price reduction can be expected before March. As before March, we do not expect signicant import volumes from outside Europe for any of the commodity polymers.

As one working day had elapsed from this year at the time of writing, there were few price announcements and transactions. The price information provided below is not based on the usual statistical numbers, so it can be considered as the rst January price information.

Polyethylene grades

On the first working day of January, LDPE prices were in the range of € 1,140-1,180/t. So far, price increases of 100-150 €/t have taken place compared to the beginning of December. Due to the shutdown of Rompetrol, the supply situation deteriorated, especially in the SCE and MCE regions. To make matters worse, the largest Central European LDPE producer is also rescheduling orders. After further producer price announcements, the full January price range for contracted customers will be 1,150-1,220 € / t. However, in the spot markets, even higher prices may occur in the second half of the month.

On the first working day of January, HDPE prices ranged from € 1,030 to € 1,130/t in Central Europe. They increased by € 90-120 per ton compared to early December. So far, only one or two producers have published their January prices. Other price announcements are expected only in the second half of the week. It is likely that the price increase will continue. The supply in this case will also be tight in January.

Prices by HDPE grades were as follows:

• HDPE BM: 1,020-1,150 €/t, 
• HDPE IM: 1,020-1,150 €/t, 
• HDPE FILM: 1,020-1,150€/t