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Increasing viral insecurity,

The following factors  influenced “commodity” polymer prices last week:

• BRENT oil price 33.22 USD/barrel, falling oil prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1161, turning trend,  strengthening of the Euro
• NAPHTHA (European): 296.63 USD/t, falling prices again,
• March contract monomer prices:
• All Central European polymer producers are producing.
• Expected outages:
  • Rompetrol: 2020. March 15 -  May 5, 2020 (LDPE, PP)
  • Unipetrol: April  6 - May 18, 2020 (HDPE, PP, C2, C3)
  • Logistic disruption, both in terms of raw material delivery and finished product delivery.
  • Limited imports from outside Europe for both PE, PP and PS.

The effect of the CV-19 virus reached the plastics industry last week. Closure of borders results in a disruption of trade between countries. This affects both the polymer supply and the delivery of the finished product. Market participants have differing views on the economic impact of the health crisis, including the polymer market. Some dealers and distributors expect that a series of quarantine measures will also slow down plastic converters. Demand is falling. And converters fear that the supply of polymers will be hampered. Both expectations will probably come true. Depending on how long this health emergency lasts. So far, the vast majority of plastic converters have produced last week. Everyone tries to supply to customers. Each of them strives to avoid forced stoppage or to postpone its start as far away as possible. In fact, food packaging manufacturers have reported increasing orders. The plastic converters that produce for Western European, mainly Italian, export are in trouble. Because it is almost impossible to find a vehicle in these directions. Thus, de-facto sales cannot take place. This in turn has an impact on their entire value chain. Customers of finished products are asking for guarantees from plastic converters for continuous deliveries. In the case of finished products, advance purchases are also made.

Western European polymer manufacturers and traders also face shipping problems. In some cases, delivery of confirmed orders cannot be guaranteed. For the time being, there is no problem with shipping within countries. This also means that price levels and demand-supply conditions may vary from country to country in the near future. The single economic space is temporarily disintegrating into smaller markets. The biggest problem can be caused by the supply of materials that are not manufactured in Central Europe - EVA, mLLDPE, terpolymers, etc. Converters have tried to place additional orders for them already last week. Or ask for a guarantee from suppliers to deliver them.

Oil and NAPHTHA prices are plummeting due to the coronavirus. Presumably prices have not yet reached their lowest point. And they are likely to remain low until the end of the European coronavirus epidemic. This could mean further monomer price drops in April. However, polymer prices are likely to follow a different path, and prices will be determined by the supply-demand relationship. Because imports outside Europe are stagnant, so are intra-European shipments, and given the planned stoppages. In Central Europe, we have to expect a narrowing supply in the coming months. And gradually (continuously) falling demand, for all polyolefin and polystyrene grades.

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices were in a range of  880-960 €/t last week.  They did not change compared to last week. Demand in March is good, except for the SCE region. Demand is weak here, customers buy only the most necessary. Prices are expected to fall.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 850 -  960 €/t in Central Europe last week. Demand shows a mixed picture. It is weak in the southern region for the reasons outlined above. In other regions, due to virus insecurity, some companies buy in advance, while others cut back their orders.  Typical prices for each HDPE grade were as follows:

• HDPE BM:          870-960 €/t,
• HDPE IM:           900-960 €/t,
• HDPE FILM:       850-940€/t,

The availability of HDPE for North American imports has decreased, partly due to dwindling supply opportunities and partly due to declining European supply.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,050-1,150 €/t last week.  Prices have dropped by € 50. In addition, customers expect a further reduction of € 20-30. This is based on the fact that one major producer in the Middle East has lowered prices by up to € 70 compared to February for larger orders.

LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 885-1,020 €/t last week. Demand is uncertain. This is also indicated by the fact that prices in the southern region have continued to fall, with supply again at prices below 900 € / t. In fact, some traders are trying to get rid of their stocks, so they already offer LLDPE for less than € 900 in the Czech Republic. Since all Central European supplies are covered by imports from outside Europe, the supply may become insecure.

mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,020-1,120 €/t last week. The price range has narrowed and average prices have fallen. The supply is wide, the demand is average.

Typical PPH Raffia  prices were in a range of 910-1,020 €/t last week.  They did not change. Practically there was a rollover compared to February. Even though there is a lot of customer pressure to cut prices. But producers, traders  distributors are still resisting this. Demand is good except in the southern region. Rompetrol downtime will lead to a shortage of supply in the southern region.

The price of PPM IM non-special products with medium melt index was in a range of 900-1,030 €/t last week.The price of products with high melt flow index  ranged from 970 to 1,080 €/t. Demand is good except in the southern region. Rompetrol downtime will lead to a shortage of supply in the southern region.

Typical PPC prices  ranged from 1,040 to 1,180 €/t in Central Europe. Demand is still good. Due to transport difficulties, we expect a narrowing supply in Central Europe. This may also lead to an increase in the lower end of the price range.

PPR prices were in a range of 1,100-1,200 €/t last week.  Demand showed mixed picture. There is a sense of uncertainty, both in the packaging and construction sectors.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

Typical EPS prices were in a range of 1,030-1,100 €/t last week. Demand is uncertain after an oil price collapse early in the week, buyers are uncertain about further price prospects. With the exception of a few Russian EPS, there is no import material on the market. Converters increasingly have to source their supplies from Central Europe.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,020-1,110 €/t, while  HIPS prices were in a range of 1,100-1,190 €/t . Prices continued to fall slightly. Demand for the time being does not show a definite trend, but is not bad. Price expectations are down here, too, but the supply is limited. Demand is expected to grow during the week ahead.

Typical natural ABS prices were in the price range of 1,350-1,500 € last week. The average price drop was € 80. Supply is still wide and demand is weak compared to the same period last year.