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Season

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• the demand generated by plastic converters came to a halt,
• infrastructural investment projects still postponed,
• decreasing BRENT oil price close to 50 USD,
• import appeared (Middle-East)
• dropping Asian monomer and polymer prices,
• still strong, but weakening USD,
• maintenance season in WE,
• increasing spot ethylene and propylene prices,
• dropping spot styrene monomer prices.

In detail:

Last week nothing happened on the markets. Prices seem to stabilize after the increase and after the bargains. Everyone accepted the assumption that the price increase would continue in April. But in the southern region import, mainly from Iranian source, appeared in the region and started to push spot polymer prices down, both in case of polyolefin and PS (HIPS, GPPS).  The producers in the southern region started to adapt, but the quantities behind the import are a question mark. This quantities are probably not high, the inventory available now can be a total of up to some hundred tons, in this way they cannot influence the European polymer price tendencies aimed at increase. According to our previous expectations the ethylene and propylene monomer prices will increase further (by 20-30 €) also in April, while in case of styrene monomer roll over and even a slight decrease is possible.

On the Asian markets there is a significant monomer prices drop (more than 100 USD/ton) in case of SM compared to the status one month before (February 14) while the price of propylene and ethylene has hardly dropped. If the EUR getting stronger with fluctuations will come back to normal and Asian prices will drop further, then it is probable that higher amounts of import will appear on the European markets and in Central-Europe as well. But this will hardly happen before May.

Polyolefin grades

In case of polyolefin grades it can be generally stated that LDPE, PPC and PPR supply is short.  The demand is in accordance with the season, a little bit higher than the average. However the demand for HDPE film, BM grades is lower than the average, while the supply is good. It is a similar situation with PPH. Because of the maintenance activities in WE countries the LDPE supply will become shorter and also imported, substituting materials are missing on the market. Though we have seen lower quantities of materials of Turkish origin on the market, but this was sold quickly.

In the Balkan countries PPC from the Middle-East at prices of 1,230-1250 €/t (delivered) appeared.  But higher quantities are attainable only at prices of 1,280-1,300 € from CE sources.  But in case of PPH the difference is already higher, the Romanian and Bulgarian producer sold their products also in a price range of 1,100-1,120 € this week.  However there are no major quantities on the market. One of the reasons of cheap prices is that the Romanian and Bulgarian market almost came to a halt, it is very difficult to sell. Local producers try to promote sales by low prices, but the result is doubtful. PPH imported from the Middle-East had prices higher than this (1,150 -1,160 €) on the southern market.

But these cheap tendencies did not show up on the other CE markets, for the time being the prices are stable. Converters try to bargain, and keep waiting in many cases, they already have the April prices on their mind. As usual, one thing is sure, monomers determine the price expectations. In case of LDPE a price increase exceeding monomer prices by 20-30 € and in case of PPC and PPR by 10-20 € is expected.  In case of PPH and HDPE following the monomer price change seems to have the highest probability. No major price change is expected. By May and June a flat price curve showing a slight increase (20-40 €/t/month) is to be expected. Similar to the last year no major price drop is probable in the summer season.

The prices of the last two weeks are presented in the table below:

Polystyrene grades

EPS was sold quickly in March. Insulation material producers, being afraid of further price increase, and driven by production constraints, have made quick purchases. The warehouses of producers were empty soon, by the third week of the month supply became very low. This short supply will probably prevail in March and April as well. This means an SM+10-20 € price change.

In case of GPPS supply is good, in spite of the fact that the inventories of traders purchased earlier are already sold. But the demand is low, converters keep waiting, buy only what is absolutely necessary, they wait for the increasing, cheaper import from outside of Europe to appear due to the potential effect of the Asian price drop.  For the time being there are no higher quantities on the market and cheap import can be expected in the middle of April, early May at the earliest. Because of the low demand probably the SM price change will be followed.

In case of HIPS supply is short, and demand is low because of the high prices.

Converters see that prices have reached their top level. The question is when PS price will start dropping? Now really everything depends on the monomer. As the SM supply is short, it is possible that European SM prices will not or just with delay follow the Asian and American trends, i.e. they will not or just slightly drop. In this way by April roll over or a slight decrease seems to be the most probable scenario in case of SM. This can still mean a price increase in case of EPS and HIPS, but not in case of GPPS.