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Waiting for April....

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• the demand generated by plastic converters came to a halt, they are waiting for cheaper prices,
• decreasing BRENT oil price close to 50 USD,
• import appeared (Middle-East)
• dropping Asian monomer and polymer prices,
• EUR getting stronger
• maintenance season in WE, short monomer supply, short supply of monomer in particular
• increasing spot ethylene and propylene prices,
• fluctuating spot styrene monomer prices.

In detail:

The second half of March was silent on the commodity polymer market in Central-Europe. Some plastic converters expected lower prices by April, as polymer prices started to drop also on markets outside of Europe, both in case of PE, PP and PS. However in Europe, because of the maintenance of crackers we have to get prepared for short propylene and ethylene supply in April and May as well. Styrene monomer (SM) supply is still short. However the EUR getting stronger and the still high polymer prices make the European market more and more attractive for polymer producers in the overseas. In this way, expectedly from the middle of April the first higher import quantities will appear on the European markets. But in the meantime the expected increase of the monomer prices will pull along European prices. The situation is worsened by the fact that the buyers of finished products made of plastic are in many cases not willing to accept the price increase, in this way also the volume of orders is lower than usual. Plastic converters are being crushed between two stones. Many feel that the only solution is if polymer prices start dropping. But the change of monomer prices will continue to determine polymer prices.

Polyolefin grades

LDPE supply is still very short, but prices stabilized in a range of 1,350-1,400 EUR. Demand is high, but in spite of that prices did not increase further. By April a minor (20-30 EUR) ethylene monomer (C2) price increase is expected. LDPE producers will probably increase their prices by C2 +10-20 EUR. LDPE supply is expected to be better in April and May, not only because of the incoming import, but also because of the new plant of Slovnaft starting commercial production.

HDPE is struggling with lacking demand. In the southern region the local producer, because of the high inventory level, was forced to reduce HDPE BM prices by about 30 €. In case of HDPE BM and film grades lacking demand affects all producers.  Just because of this, in case of a potential monomer price increase, only a price increase following monomer prices is possible.

PPC and PPR supply is short, but there is a lot of PPH on the market. Even two of the producers of the southern region (SCE) offered PPH products at very low prices this week. Romanian and Bulgarian FCA prices were below 1,150 EUR. But the availability of these products is limited. Average PPH market prices stabilized in the southern region in a range of 1,180-1,250 EUR. In case of propylene monomer (C3) a rise by about 30 EUR is expected. In the view of the average prices, in case of PPC and PPR this means an increase by 20-30 EUR above the monomer prices. But expectedly there will be polymer producers who will increase their prices in the same extent as monomer prices, correcting their prices they over-increased during the last months. In case of PPH the price change following the monomer price is the most probable scenario.

The prices of the last two weeks and the preliminary expectations for April are presented in the table below:

Polystyrene grades

The steep styrene monomer price increase of the last three months shall be followed by correction. The market expects monomer price drop. External market conditions, and also monomer prices from outside of Europe also support the SM price reduction. The question is how much SM prices will drop? According to the opinion of a major market player ....”the situation is changing not day by day but hour by hour.” There is still one week until SM contractual prices are closed, much can happen in the meantime. Now it is hard to foretell what will happen.

The real question is how all this is going to affect polymer prices. EPS and HIPS supply is short, therefore their prices will drop less than monomer prices. Producers still see space to increase the spreads in this way. In this case the price reduction will be by about 50 EUR less than the SM price reduction. In case of GPPS a price drop close to monomer prices is expected, the price reduction of GPPS prices will be by about 20-30 less than SM price reduction.

However a real change will come about only with the import from outside of Europe appearing on the market to be expected by the second half of April. This can already cause prices to drop, mostly in May.