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Before Easter

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• short workweek because of Easter,
• the demand generated by plastic converters is still low in some segments,  they are waiting for cheaper prices,
• April is traditionally the high season,
• BRENT oil price higher than 55 USD and increasing,
• import appeared  (Middle- and Far-East)
• dropping Asian monomer and polymer prices,
• weak Euro,
• Ruble getting weaker,
• in spite of the maintenance season stable, though lower monomer supply.

In detail

In the second week of April the general mood pointed towards price reduction on the market. Also producers followed the expectations of converters. In spite of this demand was not too high, due to the short week before Easter and due to the holidays. Because of the lower WE demand the gap between polymer prices is slowly closing between WE and CE as the same has started in case of monomer prices between markets in Europe and markets outside of Europe.

Though ethylene and propylene prices did not drop, but the roll over in case of ethylene and the 15 EUR propylene increase surprised the market. Everyone was waiting for a resolute but not too high monomer price increase, as the utilization of the European ethylene and propylene capacities is at 86-88% now, while the demand is stable.

In the middle of April the cracker in Schwechat will shut down: 500,000 t/y of ethylene, 400,000 t/y of propylene capacities will be lost and parallel with it also polymer plants will be shut down.  Monomer supply will become shorter during the next two weeks. Cracker maintenances will result in dropping naphtha prices, spot naphtha prices are by 50 € lower than at the beginning of the month.  All this means the reduction of self-costs on the side of monomer production, but it is not sure that this means price reduction too. The supply getting shorter on temporary basis is a sign of ethylene and propylene price increase.

In case of styrene monomer the gap is still closing that is the further drop of monomer prices is expected. Here the downward price tendency is clear also in May.

Polyolefin grades

LLDPE C4, PPC, PPH BOPP, PPR supply is short.  LDPE shortage has been resolved on temporary basis, but it is hard to sell HDPE and HDPE BM grades in particular.

The LLDPE C4 market is completely import-dependent, as for the time being imported volumes are low, therefore, in spite of the monomer roll over a price increase by 15-30 EUR was accepted on the market.

But the LDPE that was of short supply so far rather started a direction towards price reduction during the last two weeks. Now the lowest prices are at about 1,300 €.  Supply is good, but converters have reduced their demand during the last two weeks.

In case of HDPE extrusion grades avoided the price reduction, and in case of HDPE 100 there was a stable price increase by 10-15 EUR. The demand for BM grades is low, and also imported grades became available causing an average price drop by 20 EUR. In case of film grades, with the exception of medium density film market prices dropped.

In case of PPH BOPP grades on overall European level shortage is also high, it is hard to get feedstock, prices are high (the price range is 1,250-1,320 €).  On the average a price increase by 30-40 EUR was accepted on the market in April.

Also the other PPH grades keep their price level in spite of the initial panic, and also the lowest prices are now back at a price level of about 1,200 EUR.

In case of PPC the shortage is not dramatic, but just enough to make a price increase slightly exceeding the monomer price increase (15-25 €/ton) accepted on the market. There was a stable PPR price increase by 20-40 € to a different extent depending on the market and on the buyer segment.

The first two weeks of April was characterized by the reduced demand of converters, but due to the changed purchasing strategies, after Easter we expect the major increase of demand.

Though the market and converters anticipate a price drop, but we should remember that we are in the season, demand is good, the further drop of monomer supply can result also in monomer and polymer price increase and can also mean a further dropping supply in case of more wanted grades as well. The price increase of these grades can keep up or increase the overall market price level.

The prices of the last two weeks are presented in the table below:

Polystyrene grades

The styrene monomer price drop by 275 EUR was a necessary correction. Accordingly a correction was necessary also in case of polymer grades.  But the intention of producers to decrease their prices to an extent smaller than the SM price drop failed. The market, converters expected much more as the high price level has already seriously prevented the sale of polystyrene grades. In this way in case of certain grades there was a price drop exceeding that of monomer grades.

In case of GPPS we have seen also prices below 1,500 €, but the price range is very broad, exceeding 150 €. GPPS supply is good in spite of the fact that there are no high import quantities on the market. Converters anticipate a further price drop, their demand is precautious, not too strong.

HIPS supply is still low; according also the prices have dropped by 230-250 EUR, not reaching the SM price drop.  Demand was in the middle of good and retained during the last week.

There was a very vivid demand for EPS during the last two weeks, as the steeply dropping prices (-200-230 €/t) and the slightly short supply prompted all to buy.

Market players still anticipate a downward SM price correction and dropping polymer prices in May, which will be facilitated also by the import appearing on the European market. Accordingly, those, who can do that, still hold back their purchases, waiting for cheaper prices in May.