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Roll over and drop

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• waiting came to be general on the polymer market, converters wait for better, cheaper prices in May,
• therefore the demand is low,
• prices falling in the last week of April,
• the feedstock inventory level of polyolefin converters is high,
• fluctuating BRENT oil price again lower than 55 USD,
• there is import from outside of Europe on the market again, but this quantity is not yet high,
• weak EUR, yet getting stronger
• Ethylene (C2) and propylene (C3) roll-over,
• styrene monomer price is not yet known, but benzene price increased by 9 EUR only, this means practically roll over also in case of SM
• in spite of the maintenance season stable monomer and propylene supply.

In detail

Europe had a silent week again. There were high expectations as to where monomer prices would start to go. In case of olefins there was an answer as soon as on Wednesday: roll-over. According to plastic converters this shall at any rate mean price reduction. The price of styrene monomer is not yet known, but polymer producers anticipate also price reduction. Price reduction will take place only to the debit of the margin of polymer producers. The market is turning, the margin increasing since 2014 seems to come to a halt. Polymer producers are forced to give back from their profits to plastic converters.

In the opinion of plastic converters it is high time for this, as the demand for finished products dropped significantly or is stagnating because of the high prices. Plastics are no longer a cheap solution in packaging, in certain areas substitution with other materials (e.g. paper) has started. Price reduction is unavoidable or the plastics market will stagnate or drop.

The biggest obstacle to the inflow of imported goods was the weak EUR so far, but now the EUR/USD rate is close to 1.1, which can motivate import suppliers during the next months. Increasing import is all the more probable as during the first 2 months of the year European PO and PS import was hardly one third of that last year, which was first of all due to the cheap Euro.

Polyolefin grades

During the last 2 weeks, there was nothing in short supply, but demand. Polyolefin converters kept waiting and the results are visible. Inventories at polymer producers increase. Producers with lower cash flow already run out of patience. The Serbian PPH has reduced the price of its inventories that are to be paid immediately and that can be picked up immediately by some 60 € to 1,100 EUR last Monday.  Probably also Rompetrol and Lukoil Bulgaria will follow this steep reduction.  The average PPH price that stabilized at about 1,200 € so far, can quickly come close to 1,100 € in the southern region. Major CE producers will expectedly try curbing PPH price drop, in their case a PPH price drop by 0-20 € is probable.

The erosion of PPC prices continued last week. The typical trading price range was in the last week of April 1,250-1,290 €, this is by 40-50 € lower than the price at the beginning of the month.  Producers strive for roll-over, but converters will probably be willing to accept roll-over on the price level of end of April only. This means a clear price drop compared to the prices early April.

PPR has been stable for months, supply and demand are balanced, the typical buying price range was 1,320-1,380 € last week, but also here a slight price drop (-15-20 €) can be expected.

HDPE sales have been, with the exception of pipe and extrusion grades, in trouble for months. Expectedly price drop will start also here in the southern region, and the price of film and unimodal BM grades will drop as early as early May by 20-40 EUR.  Bimodal HDPE producers will expectedly try roll-over, but all-in-all a price drop by 0-20 € can be anticipated.

In case of HDPE pipe grades stability is to be expected because of the growing demand, in this way roll-over, or even a slight price increase by 10-15 EUR is possible.

In case of LLDPE C4 the market situation is unchanged, the typical price range is 1,240-1,280 €/t. The market expects increasing import supply and dropping prices. The new price range in May is expected to be 1,220-1,240 EUR.

LDPE supply is still short, but the demand is also here lower than the one we are used to in April. Prices did not change significantly last week, neither producers, nor traders forced sales. Typical trading range at the end of April: 1,290-1,330 EUR.  Roll-over and the price range getting narrower can be expected in May.

Expectedly polyolefin price reduction will start as early as in May, but a major price drop is probable in June-July. Also plastic converters anticipate this, therefore they will adjust also their purchases to this. They will probably follow a cautious purchasing policy. In this way polyolefin demand will remain to be low.

The prices of the last weeks and expectations for the next week are presented in the table below:

Polystyrene grades

The price of SM is not yet known, but in the opinion of the market players reduction is for sure. These expectations were palpable as early as last week. PS prices started dropping. Traders tried getting rid of their “expensive” inventories.

This happened to EPS as well, where in spite of the high demand we saw dropping prices. The typical trading price range was 1,470-1,550 € last week.

But on the GPPS market lacking demand was clearly palpable. The typical range of buying prices was: 1,500-1,580 €/t. Further monomer following price reduction is probable.

In case of HIPS an interesting situation is unfolding, prices were torn apart. After the shortage we had so far, in the southern region (Serbia) appeared the import from the Far-East at extremely low price: here the price range of HIPS was 1,480-1,580 € last week. 

The situation will be also here similar to that of the polyolefin grades. The market expects that there will be a price reduction for sure lasting until the end of July. In this way we shall prepare for increasing import supply due to the Euro getting stronger. This will at any rate keep up the dropping price tendency and will expectedly prompt European producers to reduce the spread.