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Silent May season,

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• converters hope that prices will drop further,
• by June all expected lower prices,
• balanced supply,
• converters have reduced the level of their purchases,
• converters try using their inventories purchased earlier,
• therefore demand is weak,
• increasing BRENT oil price, close to 53 USD/barrel
• EUR/USD exchange rate over 1.1 and getting stronger

In detail

The silence of May. Demand is rather summer-like. Converters still keep waiting, they do not buy. Now the pressure to sell is high on polymer producers. As in their direct customer relationships producers try to preserve the price level, they sell superfluous inventories via traders. Consequently there are also very low prices on the market, in case of all grades, with the exception of PE-100 pipe grades. But the market integrates these prices into the expectations for June. In case of polyolefin grades the bottom line of the price range started to drop, making the price range broader. But in case of PS the top line of the price ranges started to drop, therefore here price ranges came to be significantly narrower. Due to the strengthening EUR, in June more imported material from outside of Europe can be anticipated. The cut-throat competition will reduce prices.

Polyolefin grades

The market expects that much that prices will drop further that demand cannot be stimulated by reducing prices. High quantities can be sold at traders only, at prices much below the market price. But these lots made their way back to the market very quickly again, giving a further boost to anticipated price reduction.

Lowe demand for LDPE continued on all markets. We have measured the cheapest prices in the central part of Central Europe: 1,230 € -1,280 €. Supply is good and balanced. The regional CEE average price of the deals made last week is by 10-20 € lower than during the first week of May.  There is no LDPE shortage, in spite of Slovnaft being down last week. Because of the lacking demand in Western Europe, plastic converters in CE get a lot of offers from WE.

HDPE supply is abundant, demand is still low. We have experienced no major price reduction, the level of sales is low. The typical price range in the whole region is 1,180-1,280 €. Trader and small warehouse prices are still at about 1,300 €.  The prices of HDPE Pipe (100) did not change, the price range is 1,350-1,450 €/ton.

The price of LLDPE C4 has slightly dropped (-10 €), in spite of insufficient quantities on the market. For the time being only SABIC seems to be able to supply smaller quantities. Converters are now confident that with the EUR strengthening the supply situation will improve. The price of mLLDPE is unchanged within a price range of 1,350-1,360 €.

PPH prices are still the lowest in the southern region (Serbia, Romania) here the typical price range is 1,130-1,200 €/ton. For the time being producers want to keep the price level, they do not reduce prices further. But there is remarkably a high quantity of off-grade, off-spec materials on the market. The price of these materials is often by 100-150 € lower than common grades, while there is no major qualitative difference compared to first grade materials.  The suspicion arises, whether this is nothing else but a hidden price reduction campaign.

PPC prices also underwent a downward correction.  The typical price range is 1,250-1,300 € in the region.  On the market there is an increasing number of offers with prices cheaper than this (1,220-1,230 €/t). 

PPR supply is stable, there was no price erosion last week.  The typical price range is: 1,280-1,360 €, depending on the grade.

The polyolefin market coded a further price drop by 20-40 € for June, in some cases converters buy already at “June prices”.

The prices of the last two weeks are presented in the table below:

Polystyrene grades

Converters try to minimize their demand. In this way their demand is lower than usual. Because of the steep price reduction the extreme values of the price range were pulled apart. The price ranges were corrected last week. The peak of the price range dropped in case of all three grades. 

In case of EPS the typical price range is 1,280-1,350 € in Central Europe.  Converters expect a further price drop, they try clearing their warehouses.

The typical price range of GPPS sales is 1,250-1,300 €.  It is almost impossible to sell above 1,300 EUR. The direction of June is clear, as also feedstock from Egypt and Iran appeared on the market at prices of 1,200-1,220 €/ton.

In case of HIPS demand is good and there is a slight oversupply.  Thus prices mover a bit downwards.  The typical price range is 1,350-1,400 €/ton.

Market players still expect a further styrene monomer price drop by 50-100 €, which will pull also polymer prices along.  Now the problem will be that after a steep fall the SM price will start increasing out of season, during the summer holidays, when it will be difficult for converters and polymer producers as well to pass the price increase on to buyers.