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The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 76.50 USD/barrel, increasing prices,
• EUR/USD: 1.1623, EURO getting weaker
• NAPHTHA: 660.54 USD/t, slightly increasing prices
• Contracted monomer prices in September
• Ethylene (C2): roll-over, 1,135 €/t,
• Propylene (C3): +10 €/t; 1,050 €/t
• Styrene (SM): +65 €/t; 1,380 €/t
• regional currencies getting weaker,
• buyer getting informed, not too high demand
• Unipetrol – Litvinov (200 kt/year HDPE capacity) – as of September 3, 2018 down

• then shutdown
• BOP – Plock (320 kt/year HDPE  capacity) – as of September 17, 2018
• MOL – Tiszaújváros (220 kt/year HDPE  capacity) – as of September 24, 2018

Polymer producers came up with their offers: In case of LDPE there was typically roll-over compared to the end of August prices. In case of HDPE, because of the short supply, prices increased. In case of PP polymer producers coined different strategies. Some proposed, in their first proposals, a price increase exceeding monomer prices, but more realistic producers in Central Europe came up with a maximum price increase following monomer prices. Polystyrene producers tried to increase prices exceeding the monomer price increase.

The demand is different depending on the polymer grade. In case of LDPE the significant oversupply was linked with a demand a little bit lower than the moderate level.  One of the reasons of the low demand is the long summer holiday season, which partially lasts also in September.  The other reason is that a part of the converters is already (absolutely logically) waiting for the price increase, keep high inventories and buy only the necessary quantities. Oversupply, as we analyzed last week, is often also due to the WE materials flowing back via traders.  For the time being the slow erosion of LDPE prices seems to be unstoppable, as there are still players further reducing the price.  The solution, the balance of the market can be the temporary shutdown of major capacities in Europe.

The moderate HDPE demand feels like high demand because of the short supply. Because of the shutdown of the plant in Litvinov the increase of the price of HDPE IM grades is already palpable.  The supply is particularly short in Poland, while in the southern region supply is still good. But because of the maintenance activities planned at MOL Petrochemicals and BOP the further reduction of the supply can be anticipated. The situation is similar to the summer 2015, when the polymer shortage has significantly increased prices, this is what we anticipate in September and October as well. The LDPE-HDPE price scissor is expected to open significantly during the months ahead.

PP is a big question for the market, the roll-over in September and the price increase by 30 Euro were not well received by the market.  For converters polypropylene grades are too expensive. Therefore the demand is moderate for the time being, most are looking for the cheapest procurement sources. These are mostly materials from outside of Europe and off-grade and off-spec materials. But prices slowly start climbing and due to the expected shutdowns the supply can easily get shorter, which might mean continuous price increases until the middle of November, maybe until the beginning of December.

PS producers prepare for a price increase exceeding the SM price increase, but converters think that also the price of this product is too high. For the time being, with the exception of EPS demand is low.  Polymer producers expect the demand to become more dynamic as of the next week.

Polyolefin grades

The LDPE price starting in September is identical with the closing price in August.  But this means in the beginning/end of the month comparison a price drop by almost 40 € all over the region.  The typical price range is 1,100-1,140 €. But there are more and more news about prices below 1,100 €, which are partially the prices of off-grade, off-spec materials, and the FCA prices of the southern old LDPE producers.

Polymer producers increased HDPE prices by 10-20 Euro in September.  Due to the shutdowns the tendency turned. Now in Poland prices are higher, the typical price range is 1,200-1,260 €. While in the other countries of the region the bottom of the price range is broader, offer prices in a range of 1,170-1,260 are typical. Probably also HIP-Petrohemija will increase prices this week, in this way prices will catch up to a range of 1,200-1,260.

HDPE (100) pipe prices increased by 0-20 €. The typical price range is 1,420-1520 €/t.  As pipe producers already have significant inventories for the fall season.  In this way probably no further price increase is to be expected in September in spite of the generally short HDPE supply.

LLDPE C4 prices are almost unchanged compared to the previous week, the price range was 1,080-1,150 € in Central Europe.   Though they do not affect the price band, but one of the major producers has decreased its prices by some 20 € last week in Poland.  But all this means that average prices moved downwards within the band.

mLLDPE prices remained stable.  Producers implemented roll-over. The typical price range is:  1,300-1,400 €.

PPH prices increased by 0-30 Euro, we have measured prices in a range of 1,200-1,360 € last week.   Lots with prices below 1,200 € practically disappeared from the market, while southern diverters deemed to be cheap (HIPOL, Rompetrol) do not supply to converters either below a price level of 1,200 €. The price of non-special products with medium melt index starts from 1,200-1,240, while that of products with high melt index from 1,250 €. The price of more special grades exceeds 1,300 €/ton.

PPC prices were increased by 0-30 Euro in September.  Thus typical PPC IM prices were in a range of 1,300-1,440 €/t, depending on the grade and application area.  Demand is highly restricted by the price deemed to be high by converters. But the fear of shutdowns will probably boost demand significantly as of the middle of September.

The typical PPR price range was 1,340-1,460 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area last week.  Demand is moderate, more dynamism is expected after the 10th.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS producers tried increasing prices to follow monomer prices, but converters accepted offers in a range of 45-55 €. The typical price range was 1,550-1,650 € depending on the grade and application area. Demand is good, maybe in Hungary lower than usual. But this can be explained by the delay of construction projects. We anticipate a high season in September and October.

GPPS and HIPS producers increased prices exceeding SM prices. The first reaction of converters was refusal.  For the time being there were just a few purchasing decisions made.  The average price of GPPS produced in Europe is in a range of 1,450- 1,600 €, depending on the grade and application area.  HIPS prices are in a range of 1,540-1,700 €. Probably producers will have the accept compromises and will have to be pleased with a price increase lower than the SM price increase.