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The following factors  influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 62.74 USD/barrel, dropping prices
• EUR/USD: 1.0941 further weakening of the euro
• NAPHTHA (European): 479.61 USD/t, decreasing prices
• The market is already waiting for October monomer prices,
• Polymer producers have made minor end-of-month price adjustments. LDPE, PP increase, while PS price reduction
• Unexpected malfunction of MOL PP4 (force majeure),
• Force majeure at LyondellBasell Carrington PP

The explosion at Aramco in Saudi Arabia did not shake the polymer markets. Some of the larger customers just started buying in advance, building up inventories for precaution. Oil and NAPHTHA prices are slowly correcting. NAPHTHA prices are by 7-8% higher than a month ago. This is a good predictor of higher ethylene (C2) and propylene (C3) prices. Market players expect a price increase of 20-30 € / t for both monomers.

The most important event of the past week was the failure at the plant of MOL in Tiszaújváros, which resulted in the shutdown of its PP4 plant (capacity 180 kt/year). This mainly affects PPH, PPR and certain PPC grades. The downtime is also unpleasant because the major overhaul at the site of MOL in Tiszaújváros has just been completed. Polymer stores are empty. It is not yet known how long the downtime will last. However, in the week ahead most certainly. In the event of a prolonged repair, it may even be necessary to postpone the major overhaul at Slovnaft due from mid-October at the PP and LDPE plants. In addition, due to the significantly reduced use of propylene, the capacity of the cracker may need to be reduced temporarily at MOL's Tiszaújváros site. Which can also affect HDPE production.

Due to the loss of the largest PP production capacity in Central Europe, it is necessary to prepare for a narrow PP supply in Central Europe. The situation is only exacerbated by the reduced production at  LyondellBasell's Carrington plant. The reduced PP production due to Braskem's now-ongoing propylene supply problems is further narrowing the PP supply.

Polymer producers have already announced their price concepts for October in advance. Central European producers increased prices by € 30-50 last week. This predicts the October price increase and its extent. However the price change still depends on the change of monomer price. If monomer prices rise, then a price increase following monomer prices can be anticipated in case of polyethylene grades and for polypropylene a price increase exceeding monomer price change can be expected. 

In the PS market, the opposite is true. After an unsuccessful price increase following monomer prices in September, polymer producers began to adjust their prices last week. In the SM market, one week before the actual price announcement, an SM price change by 0 -20 €/t seems to be the most likely scenario.

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices were in a range of  930-1,020 €/t last week.  There was no change. Demand is low. Converters do not believe in price increases. Therefore there were no pre-purchases yet. Only a few major producers are trying to secure themselves by October. However, a preliminary October price increase of € 30-50 will put a stop to transactions.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 940 -  1,090 €/t in Central Europe last week. The HDPE producer in the southern region has sold its stocks. The force majeure at the PP plant of MOL may also have an impact on HDPE production. The supply may become uncertain. The stronger dollar is weakening the competitiveness of imports from outside Europe. After the explosion at Aramco in Saudi, traders tried to raise prices without success. However, demand for HDPE is low and this may hold back price increases, even in the case of monomer price increases. In the meantime there is a temporary shortage of well-known grades. It can help increase prices.

Typical HDPE BM list prices in Central Europe were in a range of 940-1,060 €/t last week. They did not change. Demand is low. Typical HDPE IM prices were in a range of 960 -  1,050 €/t in Central Europe. HDPE Film grade prices were in a range of 930-1,090 €/t in Central-Europe last week. They did not change compared to last week. Demand is low.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,220-1,300 €/t last week.  Prices have not changed. Lower demand is expected in October than in September. The season is coming to an end. Converters expect roll-over in polymer prices.

The typical LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 920-1,040 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. Prices rose slightly due to the strengthening of the dollar.

 mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,050-1,200 €/t last week. There was no change. Supply is good. Demand has been weak over the past week and is not expected to pick up in October. This in turn keeps prices down.

PPH prices were  in a range of 965-1,130 €/t in Central-Europe last week. Demand was sluggish. Distributors and traders in particular reported sales difficulties. Although several Western European producers have tried to raise prices, this has failed due to customer resistance. Supply is broad. Converters can buy easily.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of  965-1,050 €/t. The end of the month turned exciting due to MOL force majeure. A tight supply is expected in the coming weeks. If the shortage will be lasting. In this way regionally a  rise in prices is possible, separated from European trends.

The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 980-1,110 €/t. High flow index prices rose slightly in the price range of 1,060-1,180 EUR/t. There was no change compared to last week. Monomer-following price increases are expected.

Typical prices increased slightly, PPC prices ranged from 1,150 to 1,200 €/t in Central Europe. They rose slightly due to the disappearance of cheaper items from the market. Demand is low. Buyers focus on October prices. Only a monomer price increase combined with a temporary shortage could pull the PPC market out of the low demand-low price situation of recent months.

PPR demand was weak last week. Prices were in a range of  1,170-1,280 €/t.  Supply became uncertain in October due to MOL's force majeure. This can have a significant impact on prices. A price increase in excess of the monomer price change is likely.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS prices were in a range of 1,180-1,250 €/t last week. As the September price increase was only fragmented, polymer producers began adjusting polymer prices to reality by the end of September. According to some, the season is practically over without starting. We are expecting falling prices in October.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,140-1,200 €/t, while  HIPS prices were in a range of 1,185-1,310 €/t . Demand for HIPS is very weak, while GPPS is up for the season. There is no non-European material on the market. However, no price increases or roll over are expected. In fact, converters say a price reduction of up to EUR 20 could occur.

ABS prices were in a price range of 1,430-1,590 € last week. They did not change. Demand is low. Supply is very broad. There is a wide variety of non-European materials on the market and prices are very variable. Price rises are unlikely in October.