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Low demand in October II.

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• the demand for plastic finished products and semi-finished products is good in Central Europe,
• supply is good, there is no shortage
• BRENT oil price 57.75 USD/barrel, it is increasing
• EUR getting stronger, EUR/USD: 1.178
• Naphtha: 514.43 USD/t, increasing price
• plastic converters are confident that polymer prices will drop in November, they keep on buying only what is absolutely necessary,
• spot prices in the region show a clear reduction.

In detail

Polyolefin converters wait for price drop, but in terms of production costs this cannot be supported. Crude oil and naphtha prices keep on increasing, which forecasts monomer price increase. But polyolefin buyers expect price drop in November, they keep on cutting down on their demand. They try consuming their existing stocks. The conflict under the polymer producers will be sharp this November. In order to realize the sales planned for October price reduction would be needed, but this is, taking the expected monomer price increase but at least roll-over, now this is almost impossible.  In spite of this last week sales happened at rock-bottom prices. This means that in case of almost all polymer grades there was a significant price drop compared to early October. There are mainly traders behind the price drop, who try to get rid of their inventories now, in the month showing the highest prices, October. And they launch their inventories purchased in September, August on the market. Polymer producers sit and wait for the time being. Their situation is difficult as traders and distributors do not buy either. They are precautious, as prices in November are still uncertain, and in December prices traditionally drop. Polymer producers who could increase prices in October exceeding monomer prices are in particular trouble now. Now the demand is lowest in their case and they absolutely have to reduce their relative prices (compared to monomer) in November.

All this means that by early November polymer producers might be exposed to a significant pressure to sell, which can lead, also irrespective of the monomer price change, to price drop. Polymer producers also increasingly want to have monomer price decrease, as in this way they could reduce the prices without sacrificing the margin or at minimum sacrifice, which could revitalize the market. The fact that plastic converters are consuming their feedstock inventories could also facilitate the resolution of the conflict, by the end of the month many will go below the optimum level.  This means a constraint to buy on the other side. Like always polyolefin prices depend on the monomer price change. Monomer buyers saw 3 scenarios last week.

• The most probable thing is monomer price increase by 20-30 €/t.  In this case the roll-over of polymer prices is probable.
• The second most probable scenario is monomer roll-over (0 +/- 10 €). In this case a minor price reduction by 10-30 €, following spot prices from the end of October is most probable.
• The third possibility is monomer price reduction (-20-30 €). In this way price reduction expectations will grow stronger and a price drop by 30-50 Euro in addition to monomer prices is probable.

Within the region the biggest problem is the Polish market for the polymer producers, as here last week spot prices returned to the September price level. Here, irrespective of monomer price changes price reduction is for sure compared to the prices from early October.

Polystyrene market is by far not so exciting. SM supply seems to be balanced and stable. Polystyrene producers expect also stable and balanced demand by November, first of all due to the still high EPS and ABS demand. But all this does not mean unchanged SM prices by November, but it is still too early to forecast the price change yet. The only excitement on the market is the FM issued by Ineos styrolution which can mean PS supply problems in the SW European region.

Polyolefin grades

The typical LDPE price range was 1,220-1.300 € (DDP) in the region last week.  We have measured the lowest prices typically in a range of 1,220-1,240 €, but we have received also news about distributor offers at prices of about 1,200 €.  In the other parts of the region prices remained stable, the typical price range was 1,240-1,280 €/t. There was a relatively low number of transactions. Supply is broad. Plastic converters expect dropping prices.

In case of HDPE demand is very low, there was just a low number of transactions.  Prices stagnated compared to last week.  The typical price range in Poland: 1,050-1,130 €/ton, depending on the grade. In the other parts of CE, in spite of entering the autumn main season, prices vary within a range of 1,060-1,180 €. 

HDPE pipe prices are within a typical range of 1,340-1,420 €, prices are unchanged, the market is silent, demand is low.

LLDPE C4 prices started climbing. Due to the traders prices last week started in Poland from 1,150 €. This is already the September price level. The typical price range is 1,150 -1,190 € in case of large buyers and 1,200-1,260 € in case of small ones. The typical price range is 1,240-1,320 € in the other countries of the region.

MLLDPE prices also started climbing.  In Poland the typical trader price range was 1,250-1,270 €. The producer price range was 1,280-1,360 € both in Poland both in other parts of the region.

PPH spot prices were last week typically in a range of 1,100-1,170 €. First of all in Poland. But SE-European producers offer their products at similar prices. Demand is lower than last week. Buyers typically keep waiting. Polymer producers also keep waiting and prices are not expected to drop below 1,100 €/ton.

Last week PPC spot prices underwent significant erosion, first of all in Poland.  Here we measured sale prices in a range of 1,180 and 1,230 € last week.  The cheapest materials were feedstocks from outside of Europe (from Iran, South Korea). But in other parts of CE the prices are still higher, they practically did not move compared to last week. We measured prices in a range of 1,250-1300 €.  Demand is low, the number of transactions is low. Converters expect dropping prices.

On the PPR market price erosion started in Poland.  The typical trading price range was 1,240-1,300 € last week.  The companies that procured their monthly need early during the month now are satisfied and expect a clear price drop in November.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

PS market is fragmented. There is a high demand for EPS and HIPS. But the demand for GPPS is low. Converters expect a further price drop.  On the SM side there is no fundamental basis for price reduction expectations. But the import from outside of Europe keeps prices down, both in case of GPPS and HIPS.

In case of EPS shortage and demand are unchanged. The typical price range is broad, 1,570-1,700 €, prices depend on the size of the buyer and on the grade.  Demand is highest for “white” fire-retardant grades and is expected to remain like that in November.

GPPS supply is broad in the region.  We received news about low supply, shortage from Italy. But for the time being this is not yet apparent on the CE market. The price range typical for European products is 1,310-1,400 €.  The price range of GPPS from outside of Europe is 1,250-1,300 €.

The supply of HIPS produced in Europe is still short, but demand is not too high either.  The producer price drop by 70-90 € was followed by another price drop (-20-30 €) last week, due to imported goods which are within a typical price range of 1,350-1,400 €, while European products are to have within a range of 1,400-1,500 €.