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The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 61.09 USD/barrel, stagnating prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1308, Euro getting stronger
• NAPHTHA: 456.98 USD/t, decreasing prices
• Average demand as usual in January,
• Increasing SPOT monomer olefin and SM prices
• Ethylene (C2) spot price (FD NWE): 5 EUR/t compared to one week ago (790 EUR/t),
• Propylene (C3) spot price (FD NWE): +5 EUR/t compared to one week ago (915 EUR/t), compared to the beginning of the month an increase by as much as 30 Euro
• Styrene monomer (SM) spot price (FOB Rotterdam): +15 USD/t compared to one week ago (965 USD/t),
• Polyethylene and polypropylene supply getting shorter.

PE and PP prices alike have slightly dropped, cheaper spot prices appeared first of all in the lowest price category. These are smaller spot quantities (some truck loads), first of all from traders. But regional producers did not change their prices, in spite of the good supply.  Good supply means first of all materials from many different producers, available through different sale channels. But in case of the “good old” regional players there are no longer significant feedstock quantities available. What is more, certain grades produced by SABIC, LyondellBasell and MOL-Slovnaft are no longer available.  First of all PPC, PPR grades, but certain LDPE grades are also short of supply. Spot monomer prices indicate the direction for the next month.  A minor price increase is probable both in case of monomers and polymers. Yet converters do not buy in advance.  It was to see as early as in the second half of 2018 that converters did not react on the price increase forecasts. No major price increase is to be expected now either. The price of ethylene and propylene is expected to increase by 10-40 Euro in February.  In case of polymer grades this will not mean a clear price increase following monomer prices. Why? The supply of polymer grades from outside of Europe is growing continuously, in case of polyethylene grades in particular.  The regional players whose prices were higher than the market prices in certain segments, geographical areas, are forced to follow the market price trends. And reduce prices.  Signs for this are already visible on the market. The bargaining power of buyers increases and February is not a month for high demand.  In this way a minor polyolefin price increase by 10-25 Euro not exceeding the monomer price increase is to be expected.

Though just slightly, but SM spot price keeps increasing. Market players anticipate a minor price increase in February but roll-over is not excluded either. All are sure about one thing: in March a major price increase is probable.

Polyolefin grades

Typical LDPE prices were in a range of 970-1,050 €/t last week, they practically did not change. Demand is good and the grades of some producers are short on the market. Polymer producers did not change their prices. Available quantities are only with the traders and distributors. A minor price increase by 10-20 € is to be expected in February. This will affect first of all the bottom of the price range.

In Central Europe the typical HDPE prices in a range of 1,050-1,160 €/t remained. Cheapest prices were in Poland and in the Czech Republic. In the range of 1,050-1,100 € there were mainly polymer grades imported from outside of Europe.  HDPE IM is reachable from a price as low as 1,050 Euro from import and Czech sources alike.  HDPE Film and BM prices were in a range of 1,050-1,160 €/t. The cheapest ones were not produced in Europe. For the time being regional producers try to keep the average price at about 1,100 € or a bit higher.  A minor price change not reaching the monomer price change can be expected.

The typical HDPE (100) prices in January are in a range of 1,250-1,320 €/t. Demand is low.

LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 980 - 1,040 €/t last week. Demand is increasing, yet the price range is getting narrow. It is difficult to sell at prices higher than 1,040 €.

MLLDPE prices are in a range of 1,130-1,340 €/t. The demand is in line with the season.  Supply is broad.

PPH prices were in a range of 1,120-1,240 €/t last week, they did not change compared to the previous week.  Only in the cheapest price category quantities in the range of 1,100-1,120 €/t disappeared.  Demand is good and is getting continuously better. PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 1,120-1,190 €/t. The price range of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was 1,120-1,210 €/t.  The prices of products with high melt index were in a range of 1,180-1,250 €/t last week.

Typical prices of PPC grades were in a range of 1,200-1,300 €/t in Central-Europe last week.  The bottom of the price range dropped by 20 €.  What is more, major users could buy also at prices below 1,200 €/t.  Practically PPH IM and PPC IM prices have closed. Some major producers were no longer able to supply to customers. But this does not mean feedstock shortage. In February we anticipate a monomer and polymer price increase by 10-25 €.  But in the non-special segment or in the PPC IM segment for the food industry even roll-over is possible.

The PPR price range was 1,240-1,360 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area last week, some producer accepted no more orders last week.  In February we anticipate a monomer and polymer price increase by 10-25 €.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

Last week in Central Europe EPS prices were in a range of 1,210-1,290 €/t.   The demand generated by major converters is good, they anticipate a very good construction season in 2019.  In this way continuous demand is a key issue for them. As the increase of SM price can be said to be sure March at latest, it is a good idea to stockpile feedstock as early as now.   But the demand generated by minor converters is low.  In February rather roll-over is probable.

 GPPS prices dropped, they were typically in a range of 1,130-1,200 €/t last week.  But the prices of major buyers are close to 1,100, what is more in case of materials imported from outside of Europe prices are even lower than this in the southern region. Here the price pressure exerted by Turkish traders is massive.

HIPS prices are in a range of 1,200-1,280 €/t. Supply is limited, but demand is good. 

A price change following monomer prices is probable in February both in case of GPPS and HIPS.