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SMALLER PRICE INCREASES WORKED, BIG ONES DID NOT

Last week's "commodity" polymer prices are again rising

• EUR/USD: 1.0843, weakening of the Euro
• NAPHTHA (European): 477.35 USD/t, rising prices again,
• For the time being, customers have only gathered information last week,
• All Central European polymer producers are producing.
• Expected outages:
  • Rompetrol: March 15 -  May 5, 2020 (LDPE, PP)
  • Unipetrol: April  6 - May 18, 2020 (HDPE, PP, C2, C3)
• North American, Russian and Iranian goods are on the market again, but the quantity is not significant yet
• Cheap North American HDPE available from Northwest Europe.

Polymer manufacturers reported "not bad" demand from Central Europe. This means that converters are generating demand corresponding to February of previous years towards producers. The February sales plans seem to be fulfilled. Smaller price increases of EUR 10-15 have been passed on for both PE and PP, mainly for products at the bottom of the price range. In the case of polyolefin grades, there is no expectation of a price increase, so there is no advance purchase. A sudden surge in demand is unlikely. The supply is satisfactory. Polyolefin price bands narrowed, with lower and upper values converging. Exceptional differences can be observed only in the spot markets, especially in the case of Russian polyethylene grades in Poland. However, distributors are less satisfied. Producers are increasingly reaching out to mid-sized and smaller customers while increasing distributors' purchase prices. Traders who work at a lower fixed cost and arte content with a lower margin per ton are slightly better off. However, there is a lot of selling pressure on both distributors and traders. However, their increased sales activity gives converters a sense of security of supply. This is also the reason for this “pleasant”, calm but not bad demand in February. For the time being, the impact of the Chinese coronavirus epidemic is not felt in the market. Some claim that it will have a negative impact on the European market, while others believe that a decline in imported Chinese finished plastic products will also open up market opportunities for Central European plastic converters.

The increase in SM prices by EUR 50 went selectively into polystyrene. For some products, it is good to have half of the SM price increase passed on, while for others it has even gone beyond the SM price increase. After two months of SM price rises, the question for everyone is whether the price rises will continue in March or will the trend break? The upward trend is expected to continue into March. However, North American import SM is expected to break prices in the spring. Another big question is how SM demand will develop in the Far East, especially in China. According to most market forecasts, this year's Chinese SM demand will be weaker than expected, especially in the spring. In this way in the middle of May at latest we shall anticipate dropping SM prices on the world market.

POLYOLEFIN GRADES

LDPE prices were in a range of  890-990 €/t last week.  Demand for the LDPE market stalled slightly. February prices are on average 10 € higher than in January. However, demand, especially in Poland, appears to be weak. In particular, packaging manufacturers producing for Western European exports complain about falling demand. There is no significant decline in demand in the rest of Central Europe. Buyers are in no hurry to make a purchase. Unchanged prices are expected in March as well.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 900 -  1,040 €/t in Central Europe last week. Average prices increased by about € 10. Demand is moderate, corresponding to February. Russian grades are still available on the Polish market, typically for less than € 900. However, Central Europe as a whole is priced above € 900.

• HDPE BM: 920-1,020 €/t,
• HDPE IM: 900-1,020 €/t,
• HDPE FILM: 900-1,010€/t,

In terms of supply, there is little North American merchandise on the market. And their prices have also risen. Thanks to the continued weakening of the euro.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,110-1,210 €/t last week.  For January there was no price change. Manufacturers reported weaker than in January, but satisfactory demand.

LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 890 - 1,020 €/t last week. They are rising slowly. The typical trading price range is 950-980 EUR/t everywhere in Central Europe except the southern region. There are 

still cheap items on the market in Romania. However, new incoming charges will be more expensive due to the weakening Euro.

mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,020-1,160 €/t last week. February prices did not rise compared to January. There is significant oversupply on the market.

Typical PPH Raffia  prices were in a range of 925-1,030 €/t last week.  On average, they increased by € 10 compared to January. Even the Serbian manufacturer, which has been lagging behind in the increase, was able to raise the price. Demand is good and is constantly picking up.

The price of PPM IM non-special products with medium melt index was in a range of 925-1,030 €/t last week. Compared to January, they rose by an average of € 10. The price of products with high melt flow index  ranged from 970 to 1,090 €/t. Price increases have happened here as well. There is no large quantity of cheap Russian imports of PPH in the market, the quantity available is at  Central European market prices.

Typical PPC prices  ranged from 1,040 to 1,180 €/t in Central Europe. Based on the data received no price increase can be detected. Compared to January, there was a rollover.

PPR prices were in a range of 1,110-1,220 €/t last week.  The average value of the price increase was less than € 10 in Central Europe. Demand is "not bad" but the real season has to wait.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

POLYSTYRENE GRADES

Typical EPS prices were in a range of 1,130-1,180 €/t last week. In Poland, prices for some customers have reached as much as 1,200 €/t. However, Russian and Iranian import grades were priced at around or slightly below € 1,100. Generally speaking, the € 50 price increase was accepted in Poland, but not in other Central European countries. The accepted price range in these countries was between 1,140 and 1,175 €/t. There is no season yet, but more have been shopping.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,100-1,235 €/t, while  HIPSprices were in a range of 1,200-1,320 €/t . The price increase did not affect the products in the same way. The GPPS price band has widened, and even a slight decrease has been observed mainly in Poland. European-made GPPS and HIPS saw price increases of 20-30 € / t.

Typical natural ABS prices were in the price range of 1,400-1,650 €last week. For European products, the price was increased by 30-50 €. However, the market is difficult to see due to cheap Far Eastern import volumes.